Horse Lay

gali gal nuoroda numest tos Marytes dienorascio?

 

Tas dienorastis jau istrintas, dabar ta maryte viena is adminu www.adrianmassey.com/bb/

ten ji ant kofu iki 3,5 dedavo 1% , nuo 3.6 iki 7.4 dedavo 0.6 % , nuo 7.5 iki 11 dedavo 0.4 % .Max budavo kofas 11.00 didesniu nestatydavo ir kiekviena doena perskaiciuodavo banka.

Bet tas viskas yra xuinia , jei patys statymai ar sistema yra minusine jokie procentai ar perskaiciavimai neisgelbes.Ten pas ja HIT RATE buvo fantastinis jei neklystu apie 87% tame ir visa sekme

ten ji ant kofu iki 3,5 dedavo 1% , nuo 3.6 iki 7.4 dedavo 0.6 % , nuo 7.5 iki 11 dedavo 0.4 % .Max budavo kofas 11.00 didesniu nestatydavo ir kiekviena doena perskaiciuodavo banka.

Bet tas viskas yra xuinia , jei patys statymai ar sistema yra minusine jokie procentai ar perskaiciavimai neisgelbes.Ten pas ja HIT RATE buvo fantastinis jei neklystu apie 87% tame ir visa sekme

Tai taip HIT RATE yra pats pagrindas, jei kas antra ar trecia pasiimsi kuris subega, tai joks bank managment nebepades, nu ir pas mane cia nera jau toks zemas RATE, bet jei pirkciau visus pigiau, tai dabar butu zenkliai didesnis starto pliusas.

Esme, kad ir rate ir managment, ir analizavimas, ir darbas tiesioginiu laiku turi but, nors viena atmesi ir byra viskas kaip kortu namelis.

sausio 20d.

16.00 GLEBEHALL BAY

16.20 FLY BY NELLY

17.00 COACH LANE

17.20 SIR RANDOLF

17.30 SIRCOZY

18.00 HEALTH IS WEALTH

19.50 CARLTON SCROOP

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2.09 eur.

16.00 GLEBEHALL BAY 6.8 koef. +

16.20 FLY BY NELLY (nepavyko nupirkt pigiau, buvo 10.5, nesubego)

17.00 COACH LANE (dar vieno nepavyko nupirkt pigiau, buvo 14, nesubego)

17.20 SIR RANDOLF 6.8 koef. +

17.30 SIRCOZY 13.5 koef. +

18.00 HEALTH IS WEALTH 5.4 koef. +

19.50 CARLTON SCROOP 6 koef. -

siandienos minusas/pliusas: -2.49 eur.

pradzios bankas: 200eur.

bankas po 19d.: 208.94 eur.

bankas po 20d.: 206.45 eur.

Tai tebera sita Marija , neseniai apsizenijo :rolleyes: , bet jau neberodo jokiu stebuklu

Juk ir vaikai žino, kad aiškiaregės prarasdamos nekaltybę netenka ir savo galių :lol:

Tai, kad darydavo, kiek ziurejau jos ta dienorasti, tai tas pats kaip pas mane, tik banko % buvo paskirscius i 3 dalis: 0.4%, 0.6% ir 1%

Na ji po minusines dienos nemazindavo stavkes. Nemazindavo nei po antros ar trecios.. Esme kad jei minusuoji tai greiciau sudegsi, bet jei pliusuoji greiciau atsigausi. Na man atrodo agresyvesnis statymo budas, na bet jei neini i pliusa tai lieka tik laiko klausimas. Buvo jos dienorasti kazkur kaip tiksliai vadinasi, bet neberandu as..

Dar pasiskaiciuok SR(Strike Rate) jei vidurkis neina 80% ir daugiau ir statai ant dideliu kofu 4,5-11 tai nepliusuosi. As cia asmeniskai kiek ant excelio zaidziau, bet velgi gal tavo pikai geresni ar tu uz maziau gauni.

I've been reluctant to start off this thread, because I'm frightened of its turning out to be the kiss of death ... you have what you imagine to be a good system and start to explain it in public, and suddenly a wheel comes off ...* ???

 

I've come up with a laying system ...* ;D

 

I'll record its daily selections and results in this thread ... until I get jeered off, anyway ...* :-[

 

I'll try to post each day's selections by 1.00pm at the very latest, but I don't think I'll often manage to post them the night before.

 

Comments, general heckling and questions (but not about the details of my selection-process, please) are very welcome as we go along, but I'd better start off with something like an "FAQ" ...* 8)

 

STAKING: I want to minimise risks and maximise returns, of course (who doesn't?), which are always pretty difficult, not to say conflicting, objectives to combine. Like all forms of betting, the selections are only a part of the story. Betting on horses is notorious for people being able to have good selections and still lose money through poor money management. With laying in particular, IMHO the commonest reasons for failure are under-funding (not having a bank big enough for what you're trying to do) and disillusionment (getting too easily fed up with an inevitable losing run).

 

This isn't the time or place to get involved in a big discussion about whether the selections or the money management are more important - it suffices to say that without both aspects being good, sensible, reliable and proven, it's not possible to make steady profits ...*

 

The two common staking methods for laying are:-

 

(i) Laying to a fixed stake: I don't use this for two main reasons: first, the "accidents" are proportionally too expensive; secondly, it seems to me that it fails adequately to make the profits "deserved" after successfully identifying and laying shorter-priced losers.

 

(ii) Laying to a fixed liability: I don't use this either, because it's inherently mathematically unsound - it ignores the fact that accidents are far more likely to happen at the lower end of the scale: if I lay a 2/1 favourite (i.e. I lay it at an exchange price of 3.0), the overall risk of that bet losing (the horse winning) is of course higher than one which was a lay at 8.0 (7/1).

 

Instead I try to combine the best of both worlds by using what looks like a complicated mixture of the two systems mentioned above, but it's actually perfectly straightforward ...*

 

My staking system: I lay in three distinct exchange-price-bands of fixed backer's stakes.

 

At one end of the scale, if the exchange price available about the horse is less than 3.5 (less than 5/2), I lay to a stake of 1% of my current laying system bank. At the other end, if the price is between 7.5 and 11 (the latter figure being my cut-off: I don't lay anything higher than 10/1), I lay to a stake of 0.4% of my current bank. If the price is in-between these two bands (i.e. prices of 3.6 to 7.4), then I lay to a stake of 0.6% of my bank. As they say in those TV infommercials, "But wait - there's more!": I also combine this staking plan with a ratchet system (see below).

 

The are two other advantages with this staking system: first, the practicality of the situation when using the exchanges is that the backer's stake (rather than one's own liability) is the value which has to be typed into the little box on the screen, and this makes it quick and simple to do; secondly, nearly a year's figures have proven to me that this method minimises the variability of the results, and that's very, very important ...*

 

To summarise, with examples based on a starting bank of £3,000 (if you're reckless enough to try them, you can scale up or down proportionally to your own bank) ...

 

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (my liability under £75)

 

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (my liability £46.80 - £115.20)

 

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (my liability £78 - £132)

 

 

Ratchet System

 

If making profits, I increase all stakes in proportion to the bank on a daily basis. (I'd love to do it on a bet-by-bet basis, but that would assume that anyone following the system can be glued to their screen all afternoon, which isn't realistic. If you're working for a living - shock horror: please excuse my language! - you need to be able to put the bets on your lunch-hour.)

 

This means that at the end of each day, the next day's "current bank" figure is known. For example, if there's a good start and the £3,000 bank grows, then the stakes are worked out as proportion of the new higher figure, and increase slightly the next day. This may sound insignificant but it makes a huge difference to the results ...*

 

In contrast, after a losing day, I don't reduce stakes unless and until 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when I essentially re-start using the same percentages, but now of the new "65%-sized bank" ...* :-\

 

Example: from a £3,000 start, if there's a net loss on the first day, the next day I still stake as if from a bank of £3,000 (i.e. to backer's stakes of £30, £18 and £12 depending on the price about each selection) until reaching £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - dare I mention it? - down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss).

 

The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank. If it happens (and so far it hasn't - famous last words?!) I'll explain it again.

 

It may sound a bit complicated but it's actually very simple. Not easy, but very simple ...* :

 

Please don't imagine that I'm claiming this to be a perfect laying system. There are one or two anomalies in it, but after lots of analysis and calculation in the early days, over the last year I've found this system practicable, straightforward and robust. And that's what matters.

sausio 21d.

15.25 JUDGETHEMOMENT 9.2 koef. +

17.05 VINCES 8.4 koef. +

siandien pliusas/minusas: +3.92 eur.

pradzios bankas: 200 eur.

bankas po 20d.: 206.45 eur.

bankas po 21d.: 210.37 eur.

Siandien pasirinkimo buvo labai mazai, daug begimu atsauktu, o ir siuos negalejau cia parasyt, nes kazkas su uzdarbis puslapiu buvo netvarkoj, negalejau prisijugt.

Ta paty daryk su "americankem" ten atspejamumas eina dvigubai didesnis.Kaip sakant begam taip kaip mokam,be jokiu supi..stu anglisku akmenu.Plius visi "Course" eina po kaire "runka" ,distancijos sprintines,tai jei arklys ne staigus, is kokio 8-9 draw issoka ne kaip raketa ,jo galimybes is anksto palaidotos,cia jei Layint.

Visa info su "form" faktoriais duoda :

http://www.attheraces.com/index.aspx?ref=splash#send_to_friend

plius "Attheraces" duoda rekomendacijas,duotu man "amerikankes" "in play", kur investuot $ ilgai nemastyciau.

Didziausia beda tai kad veiksmas vyksta nakty ,nes is anksto nebuna $ ,o laukti race kol atsiranda $ ant arkliu reikia nakty,kelias dienas nepatingejau laukiau NBA ,tai "pridauziau" as ten ant amerikankiu $ normaliok.Nors siaip ten iki 3 valandu visas veiksmas.

Tarp kitko australai ir nuspejama tema ir $ ant kumelaiciu buna daugiau nei pas amerikankes.Bet labai "zostkai" su australiskais valetais.

sausio 22d.

14.40 ROUGHAM

15.15 PLENTY POCKET

15.50 CAROLE´S LEGACY

16.10 THEATRE DANCE

16.25 MAD MAX

16.55 LOUGH DERG

17.25 DOUBLE DIZZY

18.00 MUD MONKEY

18.15 BEAU FIGHTER

18.30 RAMSES DE MARCIGNY

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2.1 eur.

Ta paty daryk su "americankem" ten atspejamumas eina dvigubai didesnis.Kaip sakant begam taip kaip mokam,be jokiu supi..stu anglisku akmenu.Plius visi "Course" eina po kaire "runka" ,distancijos sprintines,tai jei arklys ne staigus, is kokio 8-9 draw issoka ne kaip raketa ,jo galimybes is anksto palaidotos,cia jei Layint.

Visa info su "form" faktoriais duoda :

http://www.attheraces.com/index.aspx?ref=splash#send_to_friend

plius "Attheraces" duoda rekomendacijas,duotu man "amerikankes" "in play", kur investuot $ ilgai nemastyciau.

Didziausia beda tai kad veiksmas vyksta nakty ,nes is anksto nebuna $ ,o laukti race kol atsiranda $ ant arkliu reikia nakty,kelias dienas nepatingejau laukiau NBA ,tai "pridauziau" as ten ant amerikankiu $ normaliok.Nors siaip ten iki 3 valandu visas veiksmas.

Tarp kitko australai ir nuspejama tema ir $ ant kumelaiciu buna daugiau nei pas amerikankes.Bet labai "zostkai" su australiskais valetais.

Bandziau ir as tas amerikos kumeles, tik kaip tu sakai nakti reikia sedet, bet atsiperka tas sedejimas, aisku buna, kad ir su 11 kofu deda visus.

Tik vat kaip pasiziuret tuos reisus normaliai niekaip nerandu, nes per betfajery tai mediaplayer gryba pjauna pas mane.

sausio 22d.

 

14.40 ROUGHAM

15.15 PLENTY POCKET

15.50 CAROLE´S LEGACY

16.10 THEATRE DANCE

16.25 MAD MAX

16.55 LOUGH DERG

17.25 DOUBLE DIZZY

18.00 MUD MONKEY

18.15 BEAU FIGHTER

18.30 RAMSES DE MARCIGNY

 

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2.1 eur.

 

 

Bandziau ir as tas amerikos kumeles, tik kaip tu sakai nakti reikia sedet, bet atsiperka tas sedejimas, aisku buna, kad ir su 11 kofu deda visus.

Tik vat kaip pasiziuret tuos reisus normaliai niekaip nerandu, nes per betfajery tai mediaplayer gryba pjauna pas mane.

Bandei Bwin? Šitie horse racing gražiai sutvarkę yra, gal ten rodys.

O tai ka ten ziuret,ka ten pamatysi,kaip $ dega :) Visvien jei nera "in live" juk kumelioko nepatreidinsi,tik "PreRace" gali patreidint ,o in live jau dirbi ijungus "autopilota",kaip bus taip bus...As is youtubes daugmaz issitraukiau "Coursu" paty principa ,ir man padaryt kazkokia +/- analize uzteko.Pav yra "coursu", kur is tam tikru "draw" aplamai neatbega ,gal ten varteliai uzdelsti,bet arklys nesoka ir viskas ,kad ir koks jo SP butu ,o jei ant sprintu nesoka ,tai aplamai be pespektyvos visas reikalas,kad ir koks bus tavo kumeles "kreiserinis" greitis ant "greituko" konkurento nepersoksi,o dar jei po kaire "runka" course ir lendi is desinio "draw"

Pagal "form " taip pat gali oriantuotis,jei horse nera buves 1 (o pas amerikankes tokiu keturkoju "jura")tai jis ir neatbegs 1,aisku buna isimciu ,bet ...gimes nebuti 1 jis toks fiziskai gali likti visa gyvenima(kitas dalykas UK racingas,ten lygina kofai ir akmenys,draw faktorius aplamai mazareiksmis),nu nebent amerikankiu geras "dzokis" ji nuvarys i pirma vieta.

Esme "amerikankiu" minusas tai naktis ir mazoka $ ,kita vertus del $ tai gal ir gerai,nera dideliu $ nera ir fixavimo pagundu ,begam taip kaip mokam.Pav pas airius juk fixavimas juodas,pilnas interas info,jei matai kad arklys tikrai silpnas ir jo SP "debesyse" tai butent jis ir atbegs pirmas ,o tokia situacija neimanoma pas "amerikankes ",bent jau kiek as pastebejau.

14.40 ROUGHAM 6.6 koef. -

15.15 PLENTY POCKET 4.5 koef. +

15.50 CAROLE´S LEGACY 2.46 koef. +

16.10 THEATRE DANCE 8.6 koef. +

16.25 MAD MAX 13.5 koef. +

16.55 LOUGH DERG 12.5 koef. +

17.25 DOUBLE DIZZY 9.4 koef. +

18.00 MUD MONKEY 7.4 koef. +

18.15 BEAU FIGHTER 8.4 koef. +

18.30 RAMSES DE MARCIGNY 4.2 koef. +

siandien pliusas/minusas: + 6.24 eur.

pradzios bankas: 200 eur.

bankas po 21d.: 210.37 eur.

bankas po 22d.: 216.61 eur.

sekmadienis iseigine :)

14.40 ROUGHAM 6.6 koef. -

15.15 PLENTY POCKET 4.5 koef. +

15.50 CAROLE´S LEGACY 2.46 koef. +

16.10 THEATRE DANCE 8.6 koef. +

16.25 MAD MAX 13.5 koef. +

16.55 LOUGH DERG 12.5 koef. +

17.25 DOUBLE DIZZY 9.4 koef. +

18.00 MUD MONKEY 7.4 koef. +

18.15 BEAU FIGHTER 8.4 koef. +

18.30 RAMSES DE MARCIGNY 4.2 koef. +

 

siandien pliusas/minusas: + 6.24 eur.

 

pradzios bankas: 200 eur.

 

bankas po 21d.: 210.37 eur.

 

bankas po 22d.: 216.61 eur.

Bet va vienas raudonas parazitas visvien ilenda :(

Bandyk kur daugiau arkliu ir kur nepapuola i AtTheRaces verdiktus.

Ta strategija kiek esu isbandes realiausia.

Bet va vienas raudonas parazitas visvien ilenda :(

Bandyk kur daugiau arkliu ir kur nepapuola i AtTheRaces verdiktus.

Ta strategija kiek esu isbandes realiausia.

Jo zaraza ilindo neprasytas, minti tokia irgi galandu, kad kuo didesne ju kruva, tuo geriau, nu, bet kartais toks superinis atrodo is net 4 beganciu, bet manau ir situs reikia atbarstyt.

Pavyzdukas ,kaip ant "verdiktiniu" nepapult,o verdiktinio SP 9 :)

Pavyzdukas ,kaip ant "verdiktiniu" nepapult,o verdiktinio SP 9 :)

Siaip jau atpratau ziuret i verdiktus, nes tarkim pagal kofa kuri tu paimi per kelis reisus nubegi i minusa, pas juos gal taip sudeliota, kad turi vistiek pasimaut ant iesmo.

O cia tai perziurejau arkliai nesuperiniai, jokiai irgi antrarusiai, nu zodziu loteriniais as tokius pavadinciau ir palieku juos ramybej. Ta prasme labai suvienodinti.

sausio 24d.

15.25 CARRY DUFF

16.00 BORERO

16.35 SIR TANTALLUS HAWK

16.45 FRAMEIT

16.55 COBO BAY

17.10 OMOKOROA

17.20 OCEAN COUNTESS

17.40 SHREWD INVESTOR

18.05 CAPTIVATOR

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2.16 eur.

15.25 CARRY DUFF 5.7 koef. +

16.00 BORERO 13 koef. -

16.35 SIR TANTALLUS HAWK 13 koef. +

16.45 FRAMEIT 13 koef. +

16.55 COBO BAY 9.4 koef. +

17.10 OMOKOROA 3.45 koef. +

17.20 OCEAN COUNTESS 10.5 koef. +

17.40 SHREWD INVESTOR 9.4 koef. +

18.05 CAPTIVATOR 2.48 koef. -

siandien minusas/pliusas: -14.76 eur.

pradzios bankas: 200 eur.

bankas po 22d.: 216.61 eur.

bankas po 24d.: 201.85 eur.

Ka gi turim rezultatus siai dienai tokius:

W/L: 74/12, HR: 83.7%

Atspejamumas dziugina, taciau pagauti 13kof. stumia visa banka atgal ir sukasi viskas tuo paciu ratu, pas Maryte berods po pirmo menesio jau buvo is 3000 uzauge iki 4000 su biskiu, pas mane matau, kad pirmas menuo gali ir nelipti per viena pirmaji skaiciu, todel siandien statymu nebus, sesiu prie analizavimo koef. ir galimybiu.

sausio 26d.

15.05 KAOLAK

15.15 ROBIN DE CREUSE

15.35 MISS ABBEY

15.45 SPIRITUAL GUIDANCE

16.05 KING PENDA

16.15 GOLDEN DREAM, HONOURABLE ARTHUR

16.35 FORTUNI

16.45 ARCTIC COURT

17.05 EVERAARD

17.15 VORAMAR TWO

17.35 SILVER STEEL

17.45 HEEZ A CRACKER

18.15 KING OF LEON

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2.02 eur.

15.05 KAOLAK 2.26 koef. +

15.15 ROBIN DE CREUSE 5.4 koef. +

15.35 MISS ABBEY 9.2 koef. +

15.45 SPIRITUAL GUIDANCE 7.6 koef. +

16.05 KING PENDA 6 koef. +

16.15 GOLDEN DREAM, HONOURABLE ARTHUR 7.2 koef. +, 4.1 koef. -

16.35 FORTUNI 9.8 koef. +

16.45 ARCTIC COURT 9.4 koef. +

17.05 EVERAARD 9.4 koef. -

17.15 VORAMAR TWO 2.4 koef. +

17.35 SILVER STEEL (buvo 15 kof., pigiau nupirkt nepavyko, nesubego)

17.45 HEEZ A CRACKER 8.2 koef. -

18.15 KING OF LEON 5.3 koef. +

siandien minusas/pliusas: -18.47 eur.

pradzios bankas: 200 eur.

bankas po 24d.: 201.85 eur.

bankas po 26d.: 183.38 eur.

Nu ka duobe kol kas ir ji tesiasi, gal vis tik reikia mazint statymu kieki, nes tie del kuriu kyla abejoniu ir kaip tycia nuveda i minusa.

mazink kieki ir keep on going.. gali bandyt pasirink tiek, kad jei vienas nepraeina tai diena gautusi mazas minusas arba ant nulio. Taip ilgiau istempsi, bet cia neagresivi taktika. Ziurint kokia tau labiau tinka..

sausio 27d.

16.15 PLAYING WITH FIRE

17.25 MR BENNETT

17.35 KAYBEEW

17.55 MOCHO

18.05 NOBLE ARAN

siandien kiekvienam statymui skiriama: 2 eur.